Monday 24 September 2007

Mmmmm...satisfying

Sometimes, everything just comes together. The cards, experience, physical tells and poker strategy all combine.

It's just the freeroll at the casino, have been very stacked at some points but have fallen to just above the average (~13k) with around 18 left. I've not really put a foot out of line - absolutely unheard of for me, and have generally played good, solid poker. This time however, with blinds 300/600 I feel it's ripe for a raise and bump it up to 1800 UTG with 67o. Only 5 active players in the hand, the two after me fold, but the small blind calls. He's been looking to play some poker, and has been trusting his reads. Has made several aggressive raises and reraises and has been sensible in who he's been targeting. The flop comes T64 rainbow.

My instant feeling is that he'll believe I've not hit, so I am expecting him to bet. But he checks fairly quickly and 'naturally', not at forced check. I fire out a value bet of 3000, wish to charge him if he gets tricky. He goes into the tank and his demeanour instantly changes, muttering 'you HAVE to bet there', and then moves all-in for 7500 more. I'd be left with 400 if I call and lose. My initial assessment of the flop is that I would be ready for a stop and go re-raise a bet all in, but his talking out loud about his hand analysis made me stop and think. Is his chit-chat, suggesting I'm on the c-bet bluff, a cover for a monster?

I look into his eyes, he holds my gaze for the tiniest of split seconds and shifts his eyes around. He doesn't look comfortable, the smile is forced. He hasn't seen me get tricky with rags before, and I'm playing to get into this kind of position. But good players usually don't put their chips at risk without something. Surely he'd bet a T straight away on the flop? Anyway, if I were holding a T there I'd be pretty comfortable about it, so it just doesn't seem likely. I also don't think he's called me with rags, or he'd again bet out at that kind of flop. The only hands I'm worried about are now 77, 88 and 99. He's not pushing all-in with a set here on a drawless board, but these pairs would fit with the nervousness - 77 is slightly more unlikely given I hold a 7.

I come to the conclusion that he'd be fairly likely to reraise pre-flop if holding 99 out of position. 88 is entering risky mode, but I believe a fair chance of a reraise there too. 77 feels like a stop and go hand, but his failure to bet on the flop, combined with his instant body language change when I bet goes against everything he 'should' do in this spot. I call, and am rather pleased when he shows 55. When I call he asks if I have AK, and isn't best pleased when he sees the hand, it holds up, and I make another final table, I make it my 4th this month and soon follow it with a 5th with another FT at Harbour House. It's been a good month.

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