Saturday 16 August 2008

World Poker Open

Boy, I'd love to play if one of these 6-max shootouts. Some of these relatively well known pros - what are they thinking?

5 handed at 5k/10k, Robin Keston raises UTG to 25k with AcJc. Mick McCool is sitting on the button with TT. Now obviously these shows are heavily edited (craply, I must add, why show a non-entity of a hand where Channing limps 78s, Tyler checks 94o. The action goes check, check, check, bet, fold - wtf?!), so there is the possibility of play we've missed which may account for the actions here.

Keston's stack is short, no more than 130k iirc. McCool has 180-190k I believe and Channing and Josh Tyler to act behind him. 5 handed without exceptional information there is no way McCool is passing his TT, but he somehow finds a smooth call here. Now it's not a great spot granted, but raising is by far and away the lesser of two evils. It is staggering to think that Keston is suddenly going to lose interest in the pot with 65k in it, with only the winner progressing. Position is irrelevant and aggression is everything here. He moves all-in dark (I like it, doesn't alter the hand dramatically, but has the chance of screwing with McCool's mind) and McCool passes on a K9x 2 club flop. How he can call pre and then fold post-flop, I don't know. What does he want to see? It's a pretty decent flop!

These tournaments are crapshoots from the sounds of things, McCool has no option but to ship it in with his TT and put the decision back on Keston. He's not passing, so it's raise or call, and it's clear to me which option is better.

The other one was one of the last hands. Blinds are stupid, 10k/20k, Channing has 260k, Tyler 340k. Tyler raises to 100k with KQ. I'm don't like this.

- If Channing folds, fine. He's taken the blinds. Fine
- If Channing holds a weak/mediocre hand. He'll pass, can't possibly make Tyler fold, it's a scared raise, it's begging for an all-in pre.
- If Channing holds a strong hand, he'll move all in. Tyler will have to call. Not terrible, if I'm up against someone better than me, I'll take a shot with KQ here.
- If Channing chooses to make a move with a stop n go, Tyler will need to hit, or he will find it near impossible to continue. There was a comment in commentary about Channing getting the upper hand, so perhaps Tyler had been sitting back a bit. If he misses and Channing shoves, he can't call with K high.

Imo, a raise to 60k opens up more possibilities. Channing could shove with a wider range, believing he has more fold equity, as stated, I'll take a shot with KQ here, so I don't mind that. He could call with a wide range and look to outplay Tyler. With a hand that plays well post-flop, I like that option too. Should Tyler miss, he's lost 40k less.

Of course Channing throws a spanner in the works and just smooth calls. I would think he's intending a stop n go with Tyler apparently clamming up during the end game - who knows, shite editing. It's a nasty spot, I don't like making a move with A9 here, but I wouldn't expect him to pass, and if he intends to bang the flop he can't really do too much else. The board is 983 and he now checks. Tyler inexplicably moves in with his K-high. Channing has smooth called 40% of his stack pre and then checked a 9-high board. Do you really think he's folding?! You check behind, pray you hit, and if you don't, scold yourself for making a rubbish, scared pre-flop raise. Channing obviously snap calls and wins.

I can only think that some of the bigger names have old habits ingrained. Like making use of position, position and position in McCool's case, and in Channing's case, not getting it all-in pre-flop in a race for your tournament life when you have an edge. Channing doesn't have much of an option. Whereas the youngster seems to have taken the aggression thing too far, and lost his cool when the going got tough.

Two pretty elementary mistakes. Pretty much leads to both being eliminated. Boy would I love a shot at one of these.

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